Making Better Predictions

Being able to make accurate predictions and forecasts would be helpful for animal advocates.

Are we close to a takeoff point for plant-based meats, where the majority of the market will switch in the next few years? Or, is the plant-based sector on a stagnant (or declining) trajectory, if we don't do anything to change it?

Will animal rights be a key political issue in our lifetimes at the national and international level, or no? If not, what could be done to change that?

If we ran X campaign or did Y initiative, what would happen?

There are at least two big problems with trying to make these kinds of predictions:

First—predicting the future is incredibly difficult when it comes to questions like this. We're good at predicting things that are immediately relevant to our survival and reproduction, but we're very bad at predicting large, long-term things involving complex systems. (For more information about this problem, the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a great resource.)

Second—as advocates, we usually see our role as changing the future, not predicting it. From that perspective, predictions are only useful to the extent that they help us make better decisions. But in changing our decisions, we're changing all of the outcomes as well—thus invalidating our original predictions.

It appears that we can get better at prediction and forecasting, if we train at it, although better forecasting usually looks more like "I don't know" than "here's what will happen." Better predictions require us to think probabilistically rather than in black and white, and to acknowledge way more uncertainty than we usually do.

But if we care about having accurate knowledge about the world—and we probably should, because facts help us make better decisions—then we may wish to invest a bit more time in learning how to make better predictions. Even if prediction isn't our main goal, learning the tools of prediction will aid our understanding of how to think about complex systems and problems, like ending factory farming.